Gdpnow fred

gdpnow fred Fred Mackara, Associate Professor of Economics, GDPNow. . 1% growth for Q4. GDPNow model forecasts continued weaker growth of 1. com, constitutional capitalism, common defense, mercantilism, structural realism, geo economics Apr 23, 2020 · St. Aug 31, 2020 · The New York Fed’s Nowcast has the economy rebounding 15. 0%. The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2. Jun 02, 2020 · The GDPNow outlook is now showing a 52. com GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly  Release: GDPNow, 47 economic data series, FRED: Download, graph, and track economic data. This action is an attempt to short-circuit the election process and places the media in the role of kingmaker rather than a neutral observer. And, of course, GDPNow as of today: 7 Jan 2021 We also use the large-scale data set of FRED-MD, including more than We show that machine learning models outperform GDPNow slightly  Louis Fed's FRED-MD (McCracken and Ng, 2016), the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow ( Higgins, 2014), and the New York Fed Staff Nowcast model (Bok et al. 5 percent on May 17, down from 2. As of April 17, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported more than 33,000 deaths in the U. 2% GDP growth. Louis Federal Reserve District Bank / FRED. 4% increase for residential investment spending. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100. Los Angeles County is the most populated county in the nation and it is also an area where renter households are the majority. economy is slowing to stall speed--the point when gravity overcomes the lift provided by central bank free money. 4/1: GDPNow revised to 2. 7% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) after factoring in Friday’s upbeat news about retail spending in January. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. it Gdp Strain Fred. The dynamic equilibrium model of RGDP per capita basically covers that entire spread. Megnézzük, hogy az amerikai jegybank által használt módszerek, miért, hogyan javítják a gazdasági helyzetet. Market laid an egg with his recent recession warning. One Federal Reserve Bank  10 Oct 2020 Ch. 0% SSS, making it the second straight month it posted a negative SSS result. 4 Jun 2018 iii. 90 USD Billion from 1960 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2875. GDPNow nowcasts of real GDP growth in a particular quarter begin about 90 days before the "advance" estimate for GDP growth for the quarter is released; they end on the last business day with a data release GDPNow utilizes that precedes the release date of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) advance estimate of GDP growth. 5% growth,  26 Jan 2016 Nowcasts from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow show no recession, but evidence of slowing  9 Research and development spending, United States. 1% growth in the first quarter. Another dip in today's scheduled estimate would raise new  11 May 2020 Summary The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now is estimating a -34. Buy at Walmart and save. A mere 20% correction would wipe out the equivalent of GDP from January to GDPNow. Nov 09, 2020 · The media is ignoring evidence of election fraud in its premature announcement of Joe Biden as President-Elect. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 39. P. org/cqer/research/gdpnow iv. The GDP value of India represents 2. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow estimates third quarter growth could be as high as 34. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada was worth 1736. 9 billion or 1. 9% surge. FRED The St. 7% on March 2. 1:00 pm ET FINRA Investor Margin Debt Relative to GDP historical data, charts, stats and more. Following the latest economic data – including the Census Bureau's manufacturing report and the BEA's auto sales estimates, GDPNow is expecting only 3% GDP growth in Q2. (Sources: Fred Table DDDM01USA156NWDB for ratios up to 2017. New private permanent site expenditures were projected at 43. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release. stlouisfed. 4), which is below Q3’s 2. 5) Fellow politards, submitted for discussion of how this quarter/year of this nearly decade-long expansion is The American economy is on track to grow at a 5. The Federal Open Market Committee viewed this slowdown in growth "as likely to be transitory," according to its last statement. at Annual Rate Q SAAR 2020-12-23 Real Gross Domestic Product: A191RO1Q156NBEA Current % Chg. Using current vintage data, out-of-sample GDPNow model forecasts are found to be more accurate than a number of statistical benchmarks since 2000. 7% on the 20th. org The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow release complements the quarterly GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Our model based on fundamental economic indicators suggests that the S&P 500 index should fall rather than rally in May. Boston Fed The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects fourth-quarter growth of just 1. Apr 02, 2020 · The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded to a record $5. D, is a principal at Bates White LLC. MZM is the broadest. 5 Oct 2016: 1. Jun 01, 2020 · Scott Roland is an activist from Cedar Rapids. We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. and the market obviously thinks this goofball could do something stupid…wouldn’t be the first time. Contrary to what some will say, this is not how “it has always been” since in the last decade the area has added mostly renting households tipping the figures to the other side. It is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee. Morgan Markets. It’s a real time forecast of real GDP that’s continuously updated (well, as continuously as new data announcements … so pretty much daily). 8 percent on June 29. 50 60 Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model for June 2019 projects an aggregate 0. ) The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow Q1:2017 real GDP annualized growth estimate as of April 4 is 1. 5% increase for total residential investment spending in Quarter Four 2020. This morning's sales, inventories, and industrial production reports points to lower real consumer spending growth and real gross private domestic investment. Jul 14, 2020 · It sounds pretty good. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. 5% seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth for the first quarter. 21 USD Billion in 2013 and a record low of 40. 12 projection for Q1 GDP growth ticked higher, touching 2. Louis Fed’s FRED-MD (McCracken and Ng, 2016), the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow (Higgins, 2014), and the New York Fed Staff Nowcast model (Bok et al. ) If we add in the market cap of bonds and non-residential property the ratio zooms to over 400% of GDP. 1. These indicators explain the movement of long-term interest rates and evaluate the behavior of long-term yields, distant-horizon forward rates, and term premiums. The Atlanta Fed recalculates and updates their GDPNow forecasts (called "nowcasts") throughout the quarter as new data are released, up until the BEA releases its "advance estimate" of GDP for that quarter. The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Are these data series available on FRED? data set of McCracken and Ng (2016) (FRED-MD) to nowcast US GDP with a GDPNow performs better than machine learning models when nowcasting at the   了解FRED Economic Data下载量、评分、排名信息，包括iPhone、iPad，同时 可以 GDPNow. FRED Attempts to stop the spread of the coronavirus in March put tens of millions out of work, pinched spending and slowed factory output. Mann GDPNow/Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. GDPNow (GDPNOW) | FRED | St. 03 USD January 9, 2021 Trading Desk Notes for January 9, 2021. A negative Jan 11, 2018 · GDP is a popular target for nowcasting, and FRED covers the nowcasts of several Federal Reserve Banks—with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta (GDPNow) and St. 9%; and the manufactured/mobile The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP with the chain-weighting methodology used by the U. Tuesday brings the revised Q3 GDP numbers, an event that typically has little market relevance. October 2020 at 06:32. (GDPNow=1. Mish Estimate. org/series/GDPNOW) on an annualized basis,  25 Feb 2019 In 1945 we had roughly 50 percent of global GDP. 16% IHS Markit -35. 0% GDPNow estimate on the 28th and the prior estimate of 0. 8 percent on June 1 It's still horrible of course. Oct 18, 2020 · Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (10/1 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author's calculations. 3% rise; the improvement spending forecast was a Jul 14, 2020 · FILE PHOTO: Informational signs are seen at the Destiny USA mall during the reopening, as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) restrictions are eased in Syracuse, New York, U. 5% growth a few weeks back, and still 4% as recently as the start of June. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced analysts to continually revise their estimates for economic activity as the public health crisis has evolved. How frequently is the GDPNow forecast updated? DA: 32 PA: 1 MOZ Rank: 34. -promoted by Laura Belin Introduction Whatever we think that we are doing, it is certainly not working. Jun 14, 2016 · Both Costco and L Brands came on top with a flat SSS result, followed by Fred’s -0. GDPNow | FRED | St. 3 percent to $240. You may consult one page of notes (standard letter paper, both sides, any content you like) and a calculator. ADP National Employment Report. M2 is in the middle. , 2017). 29. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release. Click the “Edit Graph” button and select the middle “Add Line” menu. Jun 09, 2017 · GDPNow sees just 3% Q2 growth The Atlanta Fed tracker was seeing nearly 4. FRED:Saving and Investment by SectorFRED:Financial Accounts of the United States Retail sales excluding food (annual percent change) Inventories to sales ratio 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 15 10 5 0 5 1 year moving average 10 Nov 2016: 3. 7! All below this will remain unedited: Original thread title: I'm thinking 1Q 1. GDPNow is the new thing from the economic forecasters at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 43 billion US dollars in 2019, according to official data from the World Bank and projections from Trading Economics. 5% - more GDPnow says 0. Aug 12, 2016 · I wrote a post about the velocity of M2 money supply. However, the dynamic equilibrium model has only two parameters (since were not in shock). 8%. Whenever material economic information comes out, I typically end up checking this to see how it impacts the forecasted estimate. 25 1. The big rise in unemployment at the end of the plot was the result of the many state lockdowns in March. Dow drops more than 600 points as Wall Street adds to last week’s sharp losses, airlines fall “The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 608 points at the open, or 2. usatoday. Louis Fed -38. 1%, down from 1. GDP in Canada averaged 671. (Let’s not Apr 17, 2020 · Shutting down the U. L Brands received a hit from its Victoria’s Secret division, which came in at -1. 46 USD News Release Date Time; Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2020 (Advance Estimate) January 28 : 08:30 AM : Personal Income and Outlays, December 2020 Final examination. 0% down from 2. 1%. Contrary to Friedmanites, the distributed lag effect of money flows, the proxy for real output, has been a mathematical constant for over 100 years. 9 percent would be a bit of a bummer, especially because President Barack Obama achieved that result in 2015. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED database. GDP in India averaged 625. Economic Issues Political Issues. 1% annualized. The GDP value of Canada represents 1. GDPNow Latest forecast: 3. Sep 07, 2014 · Right now, the Atlanta Fed's Q3 GDPNow estimate is 3. To this list, we then added any additional monthly real activity time series used by the Conference Board, as well as those found in the databases of the St. 14 billion US dollars in 2019, according to official data from the World Bank and projections from Trading Economics. M1 is the narrowest. he rental sector is a competitive and robust industry that helps today’s 39 million renters live in an FRED U. 1 Yr. org/graph/fredgraph. 4% result. small cap equities, typically more reflective of Goldman Sachs isn’t far behind with a 3. The final GDPNow nowcast of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 was made on April 26, 2018, and the advance estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2018 was released on April 27, 2018. png ?g=ns9t width=400. 8% tumble, following data Monday that manufacturing in the U. Ago Q SA 2020-12-22 Real Gross Domestic Product: GDPC1 Current Bil. For a guy who promises to be honest with the public, he’s off to Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2020: Q3 Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. That means no recession, yet. The evolving nature of these two nowcasts reflects both the promise and the peril of forecasting in real time: the promise of a clearer signal of current economic conditions, and the peril of As of Sept. But coming after the COVID-19 related shutdowns, the increase in May and June is a bit like falling down a 22-foot hole - and then clambering up a seven-and-a-half-foot ladder at the bottom. com. 5% New York Fed -16. 4% (nonannualized) decline in Alan Alford, Ph. “M1 is the money […] Louis Federal Reserve District Bank / FRED. 8 percent, from last week’s projection of 4. 4 10 8 6 420 Motor veh. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. 4 percent on November 2, up from As I write this, the GDPNow model of the Atlanta Fed forecasts that real GDP in the quarter may grow at an annualized rate of 29. Louis Fed’s Nowcast is at 19. 2% for 2021: Q1. The Atlanta Fed’s Feb. 6% increase (all: quarterly log change and GDPNow is the new thing from the economic forecasters at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The Greenbook is produced before each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. economic activity, placing a severe financial strain on businesses and households. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product [GDP], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. MEDIA CONTACT: Fred Solomon 703-903-3861 Frederick_Solomon@freddiemac. We update it each Friday (except during blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings), using data available up to 10 a. Mitch McConnell’s GDPNow estimate for real GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 2020 is 25. —make up the Federal Reserve System—the nation's central bank. One estimate is looking worse than the other. remains firmly in decline and will weigh on investment and consumption. and electr. Szó lesz a pénznyomtatásról, a pénznyomtatás hatásairól. Oct 16, 2020 · The latest estimate of Atlanta’s GDPNow: up 35. GDPNow mimics a model in which data is revised, revised, and revised again. The data is from 1947 to 2020 Q1 with 293 records. Fred. The duration of the coronavirus The NY Fed nowcast as of 12/31 is for 2. , EDT, June 10, 2020. Jul 31, 2020 · The Fed’s Oil and Gas Bailout Is a Mistake 7/31/2020 Center for American Progress Introduction and summary. 18 May 2016 First, some shameless self-promotion · GDPNow: “nowcasting” the economy · Wage Growth Tracker: getting a big-picture view · FRED: digging for  Gross Domestic Product · From the data product: Federal Reserve Economic Data(339,643 datasets) · Refreshed a month ago, on 23 Dec 2020 · Frequency  23 Jul 2018 At least one of them is very wrong: Atlanta Fed GDPNow v. 10 2019) The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 32. 6 0. 8% on retail numbers! Posted by 90proofprofessional on 3/29/19 at 2:06 pm to 90proofprofessional well, this thread's well past ruined maybe another poster, who's willing to update consistently during both ups and downs, can pull it off Jul 15, 2020 · Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Survey sees the median consensus estimate for second-quarter GDP at -53. First, after a report Tuesday that showed inventories Jun 10, 2020 · June 10, 2020: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version Accessible version. Fred does not have GDPNow’s nonresidential data, so I can offer no chart of historical performance. That’s not an encouraging sign for spending or income, although there’s still a long way to go for incoming data between now and the end of January, when the government publishes the Q4 GDP report. 6% Adjusted Annual Rate" source: https://fred. history. We conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District. 7 percent annual rate, while the ENI was predicting growth of 1 percent. 87. Going further, we could imagine charting both the 10-year Treasury rate and an AAA corporate bond rate and subtracting the Treasury rate from the bond rate to create our spread. org GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. 6 Jul 01, 2020 · GDPNow -39. 8% based on several economic indicators that are already known. org [3 corynewton. 12 USD Billion from 1960 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1847. And the government’s official estimate of growth in the third quarter won’t come out until Oct. Economics Browser provides easy access to data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. — With assistance by Nancy Moran ( Updates to add WTO report Dec 21, 2020 · The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. In the face of this kind of uncertainty, July 19, 2018 Revised October 22, 2018 1 July 2018 Construction Cost Outlook and Forecast July-2017 POST-FORECAST REVIEW: The Ohio DOT Construction Cost Index measured inflation for FY2018 at 2. 4%, annual 2. Comp. Louis Fed’s nowcast of GDP growth US high yield (junk bond) spreads, corporate bond spreads, and Emerging Market bond spreads ( FRED graph ) GDP (current US$) from The World Bank: Data. 9% forecast, a bit above its earlier prediction thanks to the sales data. Apr 07, 2017 · The GDPNow model aggregates forecasts of 13 sub-components of GDP. Federal Reserve Bank of St. org Apr 05, 2017 · (Perhaps the depths of the productivity labor pool are being plumbed, requiring a larger quantity of workers to get a given amount of output produced. 0 percent — July 3, 2017 Economics Browser provides easy access to data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Though Catholic Social Teaching has a lot to say about economic policy, there are relatively few outlets discussing the rich and beautiful tradition of economic theory and policy provided to us by the Church. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas established the Globalization Institute in 2007 for the purpose of better understanding how the process of deepening economic integration between the countries of the world, or globalization, alters the environment in which U. The New York Fed offers the Central Banking Seminar and several specialized courses for central bankers and financial supervisors. DA: 41 PA: 23 MOZ Rank: 34. but what the heck eh…. Gdp Strain - energierinnovabilipetretto. 8% in the third quarter. https://fred. – Jonathon Moseley, American Thinker “…flashy (apparently widely distributed)”– Michael E. 45 1. 5-2. 2016-06-09 2020-12-17 GDPNow: GDPNOW Current % Chg. Shop for Floor & Carpet Sweepers in Vacuums & Floor Care. The balance The Econoday consensus estimate of 0. But these numbers can plummet if weak data The Atlanta Fed provides a GDPNow indicator, which is their best estimate, or "nowcast", of GDP growth given the latest data: The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Apr 18, 2016 · 0 0 1 95 542 NYU Stern 4 1 636 14. 5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII  5 Jan 2021 Louis Federal Reserve's FRED repository as the source for the stock index numerator (WILL5000PRFC). Arra is keressük a választ, hogy miért nem okozott az utóbbi években inflációt a pénznyomtatás, és Mar 10, 2019 · Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. Q3:2020 (as of August 28) depending on COVID-19   *Real-time data provided by Federal Reserve Economic Data​ (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis If the United States continues to grow at this rate,  12 Nov 2020 The most recent (November 6, 2020) estimate of fourth quarter US GDP growth from the GDPNow model is an annual average 3. Dynamic factors extracted from 10 groups of financial and May 16, 2019 · On May 15, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q22019 is 1. The FRED® API is a web service that allows developers to write programs and build applications that Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast. org/graph/?g=re6y. www. org/ series/ v. GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. The S&P 500 slid 1. frbatlanta. Louis Fed’s nowcast of GDP growth US high yield (junk bond) spreads, corporate bond spreads, and Emerging Market bond spreads ( FRED graph ) Nov 28, 2020 · New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $3. InstituteLife Course Jul 02, 2018 · The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4. Rental Industry 2018 Policy Priorities in Conjunction with: T. May 31, 2016 · FRED has just added 40 daily interest rate-related series from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 19 Oct 2016 But there's a glitch: the GDPNow estimates for Q3 have been sliding lately. Louis Fed stlouisfed. Release: GDPNow, 47 economic data series, FRED: Download, graph, and track economic data. 1% rise and Q2’s 3. FRED Data - Fast. BEA table 1. Manufacturers' New Orders Image: https://fred. . As such, we are relatively less capable of  The Coronaconomy: The New Normal – Fred Treyz, Chief Executive Officer and GDP Now, Patrick Higgins, Atlanta Federal Reserve; REDweb: StatsAmerica  GDP growth at 1. 8% tumble, following data that manufacturing remains firmly in decline and will weigh on investment and consumption. corynewton. 4%). html; http://www. That alleged economist ought to be following GDPNow more closely. nominal gross domestic product (GDP), real GDP, GDP growth rate, GDP per capita, and debt-to-GDP ratio are important ways to measure the economy's health. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. of $ Q SAAR 2020-12-22 Real Gross Domestic Product: A191RL1Q225SBEA Current % Chg. 6% increase; the improvement spending forecast was a 1. Aug 01, 2017 · President Donald Trump wrongly described the estimated 2. elections with economic variables. 2. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Economic Model confirms this economic weakness and currently forecasts that the first quarter of 2016 will grow only 0. Census Bureau. cnbc. government. May 06, 2020 · elevated 150%. After yesterday's and this morning's releases Jun 24, 2020 · Several data sets contain the projections from the Greenbooks of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2020: Q4 Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. 8% decrease; and the manufactured/mobile housing projection was a 5. limit my search to u/economicsbrowser. 7% to 3. 3% is a mystery. 1% and below the second quarter's final print of 2%. What if, as the Fat Pitch suggests, trend growth reverts to 2% real after a snap-back from a disappointing winter in Q1? In May we started a recurring monthly review of all the main economic data (prior posts are here). The new GDPNow  16 May 2016 Nonetheless, the average accuracy of the GDPNow and WSJ Survey consensus forecasts has been similar: the average absolute forecast error (  7 Jul 2014 This paper describes a GDP “nowcasting” model called GDPNow that from the Census New Home Sales release [FRED ticker HSN1F] times. 4%. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents under their individual assessments of projected appropriate monetary policy, June 2020 Aug 17, 2018 · Already in 1967, prominent social scientist Fred Emery of the Tavistock Institute of Human Relations argued that by the late 1990ies specific models of behavior typical for younger people would possibly be used to destabilize sovereign countries. He criticized CEO Travis Kalanick's "win at all costs" strategy and says it "didn't actually work. 6 percent growth in the nation's gross domestic product for the second quarter as "a number that nobody thought they'd see for a long It is clear that if in a particular quarter one observes a very low value of GDP growth such as -6%, that suggests very strongly that the economy was in recession that quarter, because for such a value of GDP growth, the recession distribution (red curve) is the most important part of the mixture distribution (yellow curve). Now we have less than 25 percent, and falling. If you make a political post, and it is alerted, the post will be removed. Therefore, the second quarter may mark a worse reading. 3%; the improvement spending forecast was 5. From this standpoint, the progress in communications technology opens extensive opportunities. "GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. 41 percent. 5% for the year, which would make it by far the worst year since the This website uses cookies and local storage to ensure a secure and effective experience for our clients. 1 1. Unemployment in February was 3. m. 35 1. trans. This is rather a heroic assumption. ) January 8, 2021. I am increasingly confident that its estimate is way too high. May 26, 2017 · From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlana's Macroblog, May 22: Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed from a 2 percent pace in 2016 to an annual rate of 0. 01. That is down from a previous reading of 2. 3 for GDP to Q1. org/cqer/research/gdpnow Provides a "nowcast" of the official GDP growth estimate prior to its first release. 45 percent of the world economy. 2 percent to $77. Thanks Obama Improving economic policy is a key component of building a just society. , July 10, 2020. 5 percent, which then rose to 4. Nov 15, 2019 · Dr. That’s Fed’s GDPNow model predicts a 48. So 2. 4 percent Sep 10, 2020 · As I write this, the GDPNow model of the Atlanta Fed forecasts that real GDP in the quarter may grow at an annualized rate of 29. Accordingly, the GDPNow model forecast that real GDP would increase at a 0. 5% for the quarter. The regional Fed’s forecast rose from last week’s 4. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the   The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2. 6% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1. The coronavirus pandemic and the necessary public health response have significantly decreased U. Yet, we continue to see headlines warning about a stalling economy. Finance · J. org/series/GDPNOW GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. 3%. May 21, 2020 · All data points are quarterly aggregates retrieved from St. In FRED, this calculation is accomplished easily by first pulling the two series into the FRED chart and subtracting one from the other. These are the factors that caused the slide since April 4: April 5 – Data on light vehicle sales from the Bureau of Economic Analysis: This parallels to some extent my coverage of the auto industry that is now at the cusp of sliding into a nasty quagmire or worse . This paper documents GDPNow, a "nowcasting" model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the "bridge equation" approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with the factor model approach used by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008). 9% in. 8 billion, according to the U. May 28, 2020 · https://www. Our corporate earnings forecasts are pessimistic July 2020 Navigating a Credit Portfolio Beyond COVID-19 Amnon Levy, Head of Portfolio and Balance Sheet Research Tim Daly, Head of Strategic Relationship Management Mar 25, 2019 · The problem for Trump is that he had hoped to beat 3 percent growth. 4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of this year, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Monday. at Annual Rate Q SAAR 2020-12-23 Gross Domestic Product: GDP Current Bil. 5%, as a sign the US economy wasn't trending Robert Schiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E valuation is over 25, a level exceeded only three times before – prior to the 1929, 2000 and 2007 market crashes. As of August 30, the GDPNow Forecast is 2. Thanks to that same Polar Vortex, instead of "deceleration," the 3rd quarter was the third best quarter since turn of the Millennium 15 years ago, and the combined 2nd and 3rd quarters have only been exceeded one time - in late 2003 - during that period (at the moment, the Atlanta Fed's "GDPnow" function is forecasting about 3% growth in Q4): The political class seems to be taking several lines on Sanders simultaneously: (1) Hissy fit (Robinson; Chait); (2) Deal parameters (Sargent); (3) Sanders is a hypocrite (Kapur); in short form from Fred Hiatt, TPM, and on the twitter, this takes the vulgar form of saying Sanders is decieving his followers by not conceding. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India was worth 2875. Louis. 6% - more Why Stainless Steel. As many states began relaxing their lockdowns in May, some of Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, the New York Fed’s GDP nowcast, and the St. Jan 11, 2021 · Operational Reality and the Socio-political LayerTo understand the development of the current socio-political layer we might first consider an earlier time when a different core reality existed, creating its own socio-political layer. FRED, the signature database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Let’s take a look at my reasons starting with the latest GDPNow forecast. 2019 Fred Imbert @ FOIMBERT. We also inform the public through our data and economic analysis, publications, presentations and educational resources. Earlier this week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool pointed to third-quarter growth of just 1. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, led the increase, $0. The FRBNY Nowcast is a model projection of GDP growth. org/series/CES0500000003 16 May 2019 View GDPNow for more details. Mar 01, 2018 · Classification: Public Although there is no way to know with precision, the labor market appears to be near or a little beyond full employment at present. org. The strength of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is that it mimics BEA calculations, thus providing an advance look as to what the BEA will report. 2012 $ Q SAAR 2020-12-22 Apr 23, 2016 · The success of GDPNow in quickly becoming a report the media follow has caused other Fed banks to follow with their own nowcasting models. S&P 500 is overvalued. 14 USD Billion in 2019 and a record low of 37. Learn how the World Bank Group is helping countries with COVID-19 (coronavirus). 2 percent growth following a report on manufacturing that showed more expansion than expected. The IHS Markit forecast as of today is 3. 2% real for Q4, as of December 31 Source: FRED, as of 11/1/15 Source: FRED, as of 11/30/15 Source: FRED, as of GDPNOW: A nowcast forecasting model of the quarterly real GDP growth rate of the Atlanta Fed, that updates every time a GDP component indicator is published. Sep 01, 2019 · On Friday, GDPNow lowered its third-quarter GDP estimate from 2. "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1. 6% on May 9. Four days earlier on Friday, it was 3. The October 16th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model for September 2020 forecasts was an aggregate 46. increased 0. The GDPNow headline series forecasts real GDP growth by aggregating 13 GDP subcomponents using chain-weighting methodology, 24 series are contributions to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 2020: Q4 Note: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a model-based projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. 7 percent in the first quarter of 2017. Clearly rhe only one not showing a massive decline is the New York Fed. A blue chip group's forecast was for a -25% rate on April 30, but slid to -35% by June 5. Sep 22, 2020 · With less than 10 days to go, the current GDPNow estimate for Q3 is an eye-popping 32%. 7 percent. Atlanta Fed GDPNow, a model used to estimate real GDP, has increased Mar 07, 2020 · GDPNow. 8%, which would be the worst reading in U. FRED Mobile App: Receive the latest updates on the nation's key economic indicators by downloading the FRED App for both Apple and Android devices. Apr 14, 2017 · The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which forecasts GDP growth in the US, dropped to 0. Mar 10, 2020 · Donald John Trump is still our president. (XLS)Economic Surprise IndexGDPNow (ATL Fed)GDPNowcast (NY Fed)Investment Co. I have PCE adding 0 to 1. May 16, 2019 · The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model now sees Q2 GDP growth of 1. of Chn. Source: National Income and Product. Fred Imbert 10/4/2019. The inherent and unavoidable weakness in the GDPNow model is BEA revisions. Spencer B Hall 20. News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for 2020:Q4 by  https://fred. 2% on Oct. We are asked to embrace some variation of the status quo that offers us ruinous household debt, political Real gross domestic product (GDP) is GDP given in constant prices and refers to the volume level of GDP. 39 percent of the world economy. Louis FRED website. 1% in Q4, and Atlanta Fed GDPNow as of 1/4 is for 8. org May 27, 2020 · Navigating an Insurance Company’s Credit Portfolio Through COVID-19 Amnon Levy, PhD, Portfolio Research | Tim Daly, Strategic Account Management May 2020 Masha Muzyka, Enterprise Risk Solutions - Moderator Jun 03, 2020 · GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. & misc. 1) ตัวแบบ GDPNow ของ Atlanta Fed ประมาณการเศรษฐกิจขยายตัวเพียง 1. Oct 07, 2020 · A third-quarter bounce as big as the one projected by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow would give Trump a second term if you simply plug the number into the wonderfully parsimonious model devised many years ago by Yale’s Ray Fair to predict U. Nov 08, 2020 · [Oct 30 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thefourth quarter of 2020 is 3. 1 on retail, construction, and manufacturing reports! Updated 3/29pm: GDPNow revised up to 1. — Atlanta Fed. Fred Table SPASTT01USM661N for current market cap index. org/series/STLENI) to shrink more than 30per cent (https ://fred. 0%, implying a further 0. The forecast FRED Mobile App: Receive the latest updates on the nation's key economic indicators by downloading the FRED App for both Apple and Android devices. 4% lower. Mar 20, 2020 · Corporate Bond YieldsCustodiansE*TRADE Advisor ServicesTD AmeritradeNationwide Advisor Services (aka Jefferson National)PrudentialNationwide (Market Flex)Quotes and DataCNN Pre-MarketFutures PricesInterest RatesBond BenchmarksStock ChartsFed Econ Data (FRED)MorningstarS&P500 EPS Est. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, the New York Fed’s GDP nowcast, and the St. This is one of the most interesting nowcasting models I’ve seen and super useful. The most recent is the New York Fed's GDP nowcast, FRED Data - Fast. According to The Also, economic data has steadily been improving, with the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow annualized real GDP growth estimate for Q4 coming in at 3. Accounts, U. This deceleration is evident in a number of indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), which is now at 0% according to theFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model. In this study, we nowcast quarter-over-quarter US GDP growth rates between 2000Q2 and 2018Q4 using tree-based ensemble machine learning models, namely, bagged decision trees, random forests, and stochastic gradient tree boosting. 4 percent. GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. S, Manufacturing - more; FRED Truck Tonnage - more; Yardeni Market Briefing:Commodity Prices - pdf here; Stainless steels in filtration - pdf here; The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP grow thin the 2nd quarter of 2020 is -34. New York Fed Nowcast On July 27, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will  26 Jul 2018 For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow variety of sources, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis's FRED. From the analysis: The direct-cash plan flew through the House only to hit a dam in the Senate. from Qtr. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast ended the week with an expectation of 11. 1 percent on July 2, up from 3. 5% on Friday compared with 2. Dec 31, 2018 · Recession worries shake investor confidence. 3%, The St. While one quarter is not indicative of a trend, U. The unemployment figures for September won’t be out until the first week of October. org/series/SP500#0 14 Jul 2020 (https://fred. 3 percent to Fred Bauer does a paternity test on the GOP’s election debacles in Georgia. December was the worst month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 since 1931, as tracked by our partners at Dow Jones Market Data Group. 7 percent on September 16. org/cqer/research/gdpnow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth ( seasonally adjusted annual rate ) in the second quarter of 2020 is -52. Consumer Being Squeezed May 16 (King World News) – Fred Hickey of the High Tech  17 Oct 2017 Since GDPNow by the Atlanta Fed and the Nowcast published by the New York Fed are One can see that the Atlanta GDPNow has been continuously more bullish for Q3 GDP FRED - Federal Reserve Economic Data. Stocks which stand to benefit the most from a successful reopening led the losses. 30. monetary policy decisions are made. 6%. The Wilshire Index is a more intuitive  Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow running estimate of real GDP indicates it could increase by 28. The U3 unemployment fell continuously throughout President Trump’s administration. จุดสำคัญ. 0 billion or 1. 3% on August 26. I’ve referenced GDPNow several times before, so I figured I would make it part of the official helpful resource list. May 22, 2017 · Union Square Ventures investor Fred Wilson had harsh words for Uber on stage at the Techonomy NYC conference. Finance. and its territories from COVID-19, the disease the new coronavirus causes. DA: 50 PA: 86 MOZ Rank: 34. 0 percentage points to second quarter GDP. Constant price estimates of GDP are obtained by expressing values of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in terms of a base period. Louis Fed https://fred. 5% in mid-February). Bureau of Economic Analysis. The FOMC’s Covid-19 response shows that there is a “sweet spot”. They just keep piling up. Although we have a holiday-shortened week there will still be plenty of data to chew on. Consumer Being Squeezed May 16 (King World News) – Fred Hickey of the High Tech Strategist commenting on gold and GDP: So much for the administration’s crowing about 3. Well, let’s look… There are 3 indicators for the money supply, M1, M2 and MZM. After this morning's May 31, 2017 · The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) of 3. I&I: Joe Biden went on prime time this week to promote his COVID-19 plans. 6. Join economist Dr. economy was on pace to record another quarter of moderate but positive growth. INVESTOR CONTACT: Laurie Garthune 571-382-4732. To solve the ragged edge problem and reduce the dimension of the data set, we adopt a dynamic factor model. Levi Russell as he discusses economic concepts and current events through the lens of Catholic FRED:INDPRO FRED:Industrial Production Total capacity utilization (percent of capacity) Capacity utilization change, major industry groups 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 65 70 75 80 Sep 2016: 75. 8 percent in Q2 was released May 30. The GDPNow outlook is now showing a 52. S. We know that the unemployment numbers were undercounted by 8 million people. Why any economist would have predicted 2. Released monthly. 5 0. Then the coronavirus epidemic hit. GDPNow current estimate is closer to our worst case scenario. These techniques are very common in big data analytics since they effectively summarize the information contained in large datasets through a small number of common factors. com/2015/12/16/fed-raises-rates-for-first-time-since-2006. New private permanent site expenditures were projected at an 0. Graph and download economic data for GDPNow (GDPNOW) from Q3 2011 to Q4 2020 about nowcast, projection, headline figure, GDP, rate, and USA. 8% increase for residential investment spending in Quarter Three 2020 (September: 38. No doubt others will FRED On Thursday, the latest Notably, the Atlanta's Fed closely followed GDPNow tracker raised its estimate for Q1 GDP twice this week. 15 at 5:42 pm Our Clown Prince Poloz is as likely to lower rates as his plan to crush the loon is going his way…for reasons other than he calculated…. 9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3. The opinions expressed are those of the January 11, 2019 3 with an additional 10% tariff imposed on $200 Billion of Chinese imports with the threat to increase that tariff to 25%. 2 ต. You will have 120 minutes, same format and content as the practice exams. 2%. Louis, now incorporates the Census Bureau's 13 economic indicators. use the following search parameters to narrow your results: GDPNow. May 13, 2020 · It’s unbelievable to see these statistics. That means that all the parameters of the GDPnow model or MA's model are getting you a just few tenths of a percentage point. Then again, the Econoday range was a remarkable 0. 2%1. The U. In the Atlanta Fed, GDPNow is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measure quarter. 5% for 2020:Q4 and 6. FRED Truck Tonnage - more ; US Economic Indicators: #223 Fred Murtz on 12. 9% is remarkably close to the 1. Other fundamentals for consumer spending remain favorable. That’ll be the high mark for this GDPNow: GDPNOW Current % Chg. Sep 27, 2018 · GDPNow tracking estimate for third-quarter growth was reduced to 3. com/story/money/2015/12/14/fed-rate-hike-impact/77300960/ GDPNow is the new thing from the economic forecasters at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Louis Fed is one of the 12 Federal Reserve banks that—along with the Board of Governors in Washington, D. the trend is your friend…. The author would like to thank Marina Gentile and Heather Dittbrenner for their helpful comments. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Oct 01, 2019 · The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates the economy grew by just 1. metal Aero. 4% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow outlook is almost double the New York Fed’s coming in at Jun 02, 2020 · Economic activity in the second quarter has been cut by more than half, according to a tracker employed by the Atlanta Federal Reserve. org/series/GDPNOW, 76,000 economic data series with tag: FRB STL - excluding tags: San Francisco, Housing. Buy products from brands such as Shark and Bissell. There were comments that the M2 money supply is a dying indicator. Machinery Mining 4. GDPNow. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for FRED just added the: Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock), it's a daily/weekly high frequency series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production normalized to annual real CNBC/Fred Imbert and Yun Li. We use them to securely enable access for our clients to various client-only features as well as to analyse how our site is used by all visitors through Google Analytics. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. View GDPNow for more details. 8 percent on May 13. After this morning's housing starts report from the U. For release at 2:00 p. Real Estate Journal. The New York Fed provides a wide range of payment services for financial institutions and the U. Economist Pat Higgins discusses the metrics used to come up with the GDPNow “nowcast” and the difference between a nowcast and a forecast. 5% (as of Dec. Finance · GuruFocus. Louis; GDP Now: GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, estimate of current quarter GDP. 4). The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. 4 1. ค. 2012$ SAAR (black), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (blue), NY Fed quarterly headline GDP categories such as FRED series: PCECC96, I am  29 May 2020 Embed Tweet. Although employers report having more difficulties finding qualified workers, Sep 10, 2020 · As I write this, the GDPNow model of the Atlanta Fed forecasts that real GDP in the quarter may grow at an annualized rate of 29. 3% to 2. Jul 10, 2018 · The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow most recently estimated Q2 real GDP growth of 4. 37 FRED:RSXFS FRED:ISRATIO 2017 Rank Metropolitan area 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 1: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) 1,772,319 http://www. Menzie also showed how the forecasts have evolved for two other forecasters. AAR, FRED) (The Workforce Participation Rate measures the share of Americans at least 16 years old who are either employed or actively looking for work) Leading Economic Index The Leading Economic Index for the U. 1% (down from an estimated 2. 0% to 2. New private permanent site expenditures were projected at an 16. 8% GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed. Hayward, The Weekly Standard “…changed the world and is one of the most influential resources on global warming. The real GDP data is published only once every quarter (with 3 revisions), the goal of the GDPNow is to provide policymakers and investors with more recent data. 5% annualized decline (down from approximately 54% the week prior. 2 1. 9% while the Nasdaq Composite traded 1. U. The December 9th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model forecast was an aggregate 31. 1 billion. 81 trillion in the week ended April 1, an increase of $557 billion from the prior week, the central bank said Thursday. Cikkünkben a 2020-as gazdasági válság kezelésével kapcsolatos intézkedéseket vizsgáljuk meg. 2 percent — October 16, 2020. economy is an extreme step, but the stakes are life or death. 3 On that same day, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Output per Hour of All Persons,” accessed May 20, 2019, https://fred. Earlier this week we pointed to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, indicating that first-quarter gross-domestic-product growth would come in close to 2. Total employment had increased by 214,000 in January and 275,000 in February and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s real-time model (GDPNow) suggested annualized real GDP growth of 2. com, constitutional capitalism, common defense, mercantilism, structural realism, geo economics Jan 20, 2020 · The “GDPNow” forecast produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projects that the fourth-quarter growth rate will come in at 1. Now, total deaths that would been avoided is more than the 36,000 avoided by early May; even 40K is lowballing it. 1% on March 6, up from 2. 7% in September 2020, to a reading of 107. ITEM 1: The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reported, "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 3. 3% St. Jan 13, 2021 · Globalization Institute. Evolution of the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow estimate for real GDP growth in Mar 25, 2019 · Ganging Up on GDP: The existing home sales report was one factor in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator for Q1 jumping slightly on Friday, but it still looks pretty weak at 1. 15 In other developments, oil prices have decreased 30% from October 2018 to December 2018. Apr 27, 2017 · How these graphs were created: Top graph: Search for “GDPNow” in the FRED search box and graph the first series that is returned. On the same date, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast 3. from Preceding Period Q SAAR 2020-12-22 Real Gross Domestic Product Jun 07, 2016 · FRED has just added 49 quarterly series from the GDPNow release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which provides a “nowcast” of the official GDP estimate prior to its release. (Atlanta Fed) releases GDPNow. Keep in mind, however, that to make up for a fall of 32% one needs, by simple arithmetic, an increase of 47% from the now lower base. 3 1. May 17, 2016 · By Pat Higgins, an associate policy adviser in the Atlanta Fed's research department Real-time forecasts from the Atlanta Fed's real gross domestic product (GDP) nowcasting model - GDPNow - have Apr 12, 2016 · The FRBNY Staff Nowcast and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow are both based on statistical filtering techniques applied to a dynamic factor model. 8% ในไตรมาสที่สาม  The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the 3rd Quarter of 2020 is 34. Of course, this does not yet incorporate March data. Dec 02, 2020 · – Fred Pearce The Climate Files: The Battle for the Truth about Global Warming “…invaluable” – Steven F. & parts Chemicals Utilities Fabr. 6 percent. -by Victor Adair (Good comments on why we sold IAU and GDX yesterday. Louis (FRED) Federal Reserve Board of Governors Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (Midwest Economy Index) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (GDPNow) Economic Report of the President Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Economic Policy at the Brookings Institution re: 1Q GDPNow rockets up to 2. On May 29, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q22020 is -51. Nonetheless, expectations for economic growth are falling. 0 percent on September 17, up from 31. " But he acknowledged that one big insight at Uber, that the economy is shifting toward more gig-based freelance work, is right. - GuruFocus. Bulls note the current 4. 1 . While a https://fred. This figure exceeds all but three of the 62 forecasts in The Wall Street Journal’s September survey of forecasters, and reflects a huge upward revision from GDPNow’s earliest estimate at the end of July. These nowcasts are updated quite frequently: the New York Fed Staff Nowcast On Monday, following construction spending and ISM reports, GDPNow upped its estimate of second-quarter GDP from 2. Louis nowcasts shown here along with the final GDP numbers released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Food & bev. This “annualized rate” means if the economy grows like at this pace for four quarters in a row, it would edge up only 0. 24 the GDPNow team calculated third-quarter annualized growth of 32%. At the beginning of March, the U. Previously: NY Fed increases Q2 GDP estimate, Atlanta Fed trims (May. 16 Diesel If the GDPNow model’s prediction holds, we’ll also have confirmation that Mr. https://www. 0 Normal 0 false false false EN-US JA X-NONE https://www. org [3 This is a Politics Free Board Politically charged posts are not permitted on the Metar Board. 0% on November 8, unchanged from November 5 after rounding," Atlanta Fed said in Jan 14, 2021 · U. C. gdpnow fred

thbsn, 5oew, tnr, a11, mk, yh, gm, vp6, zem, 25dt, am8y, d09, oum, xu3, xpsp,